🎰 Blackjack Shuffle Trackers Cookbook: How Players Win (And Why They Lose) With Shuffle Tracking

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\

Therefore, if the player is hitting 13 first-card aces per times that he bets on hitting one, he is hitting 5. It is even more unfortunate that within the text he seems to represent that he himself has used these methods with great success. You need a pretty big spread to break even, and you might get an edge of about 0. I do not believe he was trying to pull a scam on players and sell a phony ace prediction system. If a blindfolded monkey were placing these bets, he would hit a first-card ace 7. He assumes that the player gets a total of 13 first-card aces, but that the dealer gets a total of only 6 first-card aces. Instead, I will point out one of the key errors in the math. This is not his overall predicted win rate on the game if we assume he has any "waiting bets" while he is playing hands and watching for his key cards. Dealer: But, sir, you have McDowell: I know how to add, damn it! For example, if we are successfully locating 4 aces per shoe via key cards, then the house edge on a hand where there is no key card predicting an ace should reflect the fact that we are playing in a six-deck shoe game minus four aces, since the number of random aces available to us has been diminished by 4. Let me explain why We know that in a completely random game the player and dealer will each get 7. I then calculate the cost to the player when the dealer gets the extra aces: 5. I believe McDowell attempted to invent a valid ace-location method that could be used by serious blackjack players. But I cannot ignore this book. In fact, McDowell tells me he used other ace location methods on much simpler shuffles many years ago, but has never attempted to use the methods he proposes in this book in the shuffles he describes. But then, he says that the cost of this play is "relatively small, about 0. In other words, the actual overall advantage of his system is not 0. I see little point in trashing some unknown author whose lack of credentials will ensure him a place in obscurity. Well, maybe. Arnold Snyder shows why this is impossible, based on egregious errors in the blackjack math and shuffle tracking methods advocated in David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction. Let me take a moment to point out that this is in no way my "rule of thumb" or overall recommendation for the best way to approach ace-sequencing. This example of one of the blackjack math errors in this book, the main one I am going to address, can be found on page , where the author describes how he estimates his advantage from tracking aces. Note that we are still discussing only the hands on which the ace tracker has bet on an impending ace, as predicted by his key card. So, rather than concern myself with the feelings of a well-intentioned but misguided author, I will be blunt in my remarks on this book. So, the dealer is also getting an extra 5. Anyone who understands gambling math can go over it and find the errors fairly easily. The error, and it is a serious one, is in believing that the house has only a 0. I usually ignore blackjack books that are worthless. That would make our waiting bets more expensive than 0. The actual win rate of an ace tracker is complicated by numerous other factors. But McDowell comes up with this 4. Unfortunately, this is not just some unknown nobody that I can send a polite personal note to and tell him his system is all wet. I believe McDowell attempted to run his ideas by a number of notable blackjack experts to get their input on his methods. One email is particularly disturbing to me because it is from a very knowledgeable card counter whom I have known for many years, and whom I know has recently lost a substantial portion of his bankroll due to miserable negative fluctuation. McDowell estimates this number as an even 7 times, but I prefer to use the exact number, 7. Does Snyder always have to be the bad guy delivering the bad news? He estimates that this is about 6 extra aces per bets. But since the player McDowell describes is using no technique to "steer" the aces that is, he is not playing multiple hands as necessary in an attempt to keep any keyed aces away from the dealer , I will go along with his assumption that what he terms my "rule of thumb" would fit this situation. This is the first of a series of articles on Blackjack Ace Prediction that should help serious players learn the real math, edge and methodology of blackjack ace sequencing or tracking.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} This would occur on Obviously, a win rate of only 0. Blackjack Forum. And, unfortunately, the methods in this book will not succeed. In other words, he gives the player both the random aces 7. I will not make any attempt myself to provide a comprehensive critique of this book. You cannot in practical terms beat a blackjack game via ace tracking if you are only successful at hitting the ace on a total of 13 out of bets. I think his heart was mostly in the right place. Subject to the rules, on the other 40 or so hands per shoe when no ace is predicted, the ace tracker will be playing against a house advantage of about 0. Since there is one ace per 13 cards, this is a simple calculation. What I could not fathom, however, was how he came up with this advantage if he was only hitting the ace on 13 out of every times he bet on its coming. I suspect that some or all of the authorities he sent his manuscript to believed that he had used these methods with success and was writing from personal experience. I will address the cost of the waiting bets, and the effect of the player actually raising his bet when the ace is predicted, below. Unfortunately, he did not send the book to any actual ace trackers. Instead, this is what his expectation would be if he was betting only on the keyed aces, and he and the dealer were each getting an extra 5. Maybe someday Tommy Hyland or Al Francesco or another of the real-life ace trackers out there will write a book on this subject and really tell you how to do it. Since the key card on the prior round that signals an impending ace would have an equal likelihood of being dealt as any card in that round, then I would agree that the ace the key card signals would as likely go to the dealer hand as the player hand on the next round where the player is betting on the ace. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}The author provides a modicum of the theory of ace location or prediction, but his understanding of casino shuffles, tracking methodology, and ace prediction in the real world is seriously flawed, and his blackjack math is replete with errors. Or, at least, not the way McDowell has done it. It turns out there is a rather gross error in his math. A Simple Tell that McDowell Doesn't Know What He's Doing in Blackjack Ace Prediction This example of one of the blackjack math errors in this book, the main one I am going to address, can be found on page , where the author describes how he estimates his advantage from tracking aces. There are many other examples of bad math in the book. Poker Tournaments. If we then estimate that, on the remaining So, where is the error in this thinking? That 0. This is always the kind of problem that occurs when someone is thinking theoretically instead of realistically, because the person never actually did what they are proposing. Either do the math yourself, or take it to another expert for help. To estimate the value of this hit rate, the first thing to do is figure out how many times per hands the player would be dealt an ace as the first card at random. This, of course, is silly. Using all of these assumptions, McDowell calculates his win rate on these hands as 4. I have already said that I do not believe the author was attempting to pull a scam with this book, and that, based on the endorsements on the cover, it appears he made an effort to send the book to noted authorities for an opinion. And there is another very important point that must be clarified here: This 0. Now hit that hand! I am going to provide a simple mathematical analysis in this article. McDowell states that "an Ace tracker may deliberately hit the hand until it busts" so that the two aces on the hands on either side of it will be adjacent to each other in the discard tray.